Week 14 Fantasy Football Analysis

Valued Customers

Generated: 2025-12-05 13:48

Matchup Status (Week 14)

17.3 - 24.0 vs Meat Pistols

Games Completed (1)

PlayerPosSlotActualESPNLLMvs LLM
Jameson Williams WR RB/WR/TE ✓ 17.3 13.8 18.0 -0.7

Games Pending (15)

PlayerPosSlotESPNLLM
Jacoby Brissett QB QB 15.3 18.0
Bucky Irving RB RB 16.4 18.0
Tyjae Spears RB RB 8.6 9.5
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR WR 20.9 19.5
Rashee Rice WR WR 17.1 17.5
Juwan Johnson TE TE 9.7 10.0
Jason Myers K K 8.3 10.0
Rams D/ST D/ST D/ST 6.8 8.0
Emanuel Wilson (bench) RB BE 6.1 4.0
Hunter Henry (bench) TE BE 0.0 ---
Jordan Love (bench) QB BE 17.6 17.5
Keenan Allen (bench) WR BE 10.5 8.0
Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench) WR BE 0.0 ---
Omarion Hampton (bench) RB BE 12.1 6.0
Tetairoa McMillan (bench) WR BE 0.0 ---
17.3 Starter Actuals
110.5 Remaining Proj
127.8 Est. Total

Opponent: Meat Pistols

Opponent Games Completed (1)

PlayerPosSlotActualESPNvs ESPN
Brandon Aubrey K K ✓ 24.0 8.9 +15.1

Opponent Games Pending (15)

PlayerPosSlotESPN
Patrick Mahomes QB QB 17.9
Nick Chubb RB RB 5.3
Ollie Gordon II RB RB 3.2
Keon Coleman WR WR 6.7
Malik Washington WR WR 8.4
Dalton Kincaid TE TE 10.0
DJ Moore WR RB/WR/TE 9.1
Vikings D/ST D/ST D/ST 5.2
Chris Boswell (bench) K BE 7.9
Christian McCaffrey (bench) RB BE 0.0
J.J. McCarthy (bench) QB BE 14.7
Packers D/ST (bench) D/ST BE 3.5
Ray Davis (bench) RB BE 2.6
Rhamondre Stevenson (bench) RB BE 0.0
Sam LaPorta (bench) TE BE 0.0
24.0 Opp Actuals
65.9 Opp Remaining
89.9 Opp Est. Total
Projected Margin: +37.9 pts

Executive Summary

Week 14 brings a favorable slate with several smash spots. Bucky Irving returns from injury against the league's worst run defense in New Orleans, projecting for an 18-point boom week. Jaxon Smith-Njigba remains the consensus WR1 against Atlanta's vulnerable secondary. The Thursday night game features Jameson Williams as Detroit's clear WR1 with Amon-Ra St. Brown sidelined. At 7-6 in 4th place, every point matters for playoff positioning - we're projected for 128.5 points against Meat Pistols' 74.8.

Key Insights

Recommended Starting Lineup

SlotPlayerOppESPNLLMModeConfidence
QBJacoby BrissettLAR15.318.0BOOMMEDIUM
RBBucky IrvingUnk16.418.0BOOMHIGH
RBTyjae SpearsCLE8.69.5MODERATELOW
WRJaxon Smith-NjigbaATL20.919.5MODERATEHIGH
WRRashee RiceHOU17.117.5MODERATEMEDIUM
TEJuwan JohnsonTB9.710.0MODERATEMEDIUM
FLEXJameson WilliamsDAL16.918.0MODERATEMEDIUM
KJason MyersATL8.310.0MODERATELOW
D/STRams D/STARI6.88.0MODERATEMEDIUM

Lineup Decisions

QB: Start Jacoby Brissett over Jordan Love - Brissett 70% BOOM historical rate, Love at -15°F Lambeau. Brissett safer floor despite Rams pressure.

FLEX: Start Jameson Williams over Jordan Love - Thursday game locks in - Williams as WR1 with St. Brown OUT vs Cowboys worst WR defense.

XGBoost Boom/Bust Analysis

PlayerPosESPNLLMModeBoom%Mod%Bust%
Marvin Harrison Jr.WR13.80.0BUST42.2%47.3%10.5%
Jason MyersK8.310.0MODERATE36.5%41.5%22.0%
Evan EngramTE8.16.0BUST25.3%49.2%25.5%
Rashee RiceWR17.117.5MODERATE25.3%49.8%24.9%
Juwan JohnsonTE9.710.0MODERATE18.6%52.2%29.2%
Jordan LoveQB17.617.5MODERATE17.5%73.7%8.8%
Jacoby BrissettQB15.318.0BOOM17.1%64.1%18.8%
Tyjae SpearsRB8.69.5MODERATE16.9%59.5%23.5%
Omarion HamptonRB12.16.0BUST13.8%47.5%38.7%
Rams D/STD/ST6.88.0MODERATE11.2%21.3%67.5%
Bucky IrvingRB16.418.0BOOM11.0%47.6%41.3%
Emanuel WilsonRB6.14.0BUST11.0%43.1%45.9%
Jameson WilliamsWR16.918.0MODERATE10.8%33.9%55.4%
Keenan AllenWR10.58.0BUST10.6%33.0%56.4%
Tetairoa McMillanWR---0.0BUST10.2%32.1%57.7%
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR20.919.5MODERATE8.9%77.7%13.3%
Hunter HenryTE---0.0BUST8.7%24.1%67.1%

Jordan Love (GB vs CHI)

Projections: ESPN 17.6 | LLM 17.5 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: XGB: 30% boom, 22% bust. vs CHI (16th vs QB). GB -6.5 favorite in shootout potential (44.5 total). Hot streak: 31/43 337yds 3TD Week 13. MODERATE mode [9.1-24.1]. Weather concern but dome-like for cold weather team. Selecting 17.5 in MODERATE range.

Context: O/U: 44.5 | Def Rank: 16 | ECR: 12

MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 24%

XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 9% (MEDIUM)


Jacoby Brissett (ARI vs LAR)

Projections: ESPN 15.3 | LLM 18.0 (BOOM)

Reasoning: XGB: 22% boom, 35% bust. vs LAR (10th vs QB). High game total (47.0). MC shows 70% BOOM mode! ARI +8 underdog = passing volume. LLM AGREES with MC BOOM selection despite XGB moderate signal. 18.0 in BOOM range [16.5-27.5].

Context: O/U: 47.0 | Def Rank: 10 | ECR: 8

MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 5% | BOOM: 70%

XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 19% (MEDIUM)


Bucky Irving (TB vs Unk)

Projections: ESPN 16.4 | LLM 18.0 (BOOM)

Reasoning: MC: 17% BUST, 61% MOD, 23% BOOM. XGB: 11% boom, 41% bust. OVERRIDE XGB: Saints allow 5th most rush yds, gashed by Achane. Irving 81 yds + TD Week 13, 52% snaps. Selecting BOOM mode. 18.0 within BOOM range [16.3, 31.3].

Context: O/U: 42.5 | Def Rank: 28 | ECR: 23

MC (Historical): BUST: 17% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 22%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 41% (MEDIUM)


Tyjae Spears (TEN vs CLE)

Projections: ESPN 8.6 | LLM 9.5 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: XGB: 19% boom, 34% bust. vs CLE (8th vs RB - TOUGH). Low game total (33.5) = limited scoring. TEN +4.5 underdog = negative game script risk. MC MODERATE [5.3-13.3]. MODERATE 9.5 accounts for committee split with Pollard. Ceiling capped.

Context: O/U: 33.5 | Def Rank: 8

MC (Historical): BUST: 20% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 18%

XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 24% (MEDIUM)


Omarion Hampton (LAC vs PHI)

Projections: ESPN 12.1 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 29% BUST, 40% MOD. XGB: 14% boom, 39% bust. INJURED status + PHI strong run defense. Selecting BUST mode. 6.0 within BUST range [0.2, 7.7].

Context: O/U: 40.5 | Def Rank: 5

MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 31%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 39% (MEDIUM)


Emanuel Wilson (GB vs CHI)

Projections: ESPN 6.1 | LLM 4.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 49% BUST. XGB: 11% boom, 46% bust. Backup to Josh Jacobs with limited touches. Cold weather game. Selecting BUST mode. 4.0 within BUST range [-1.4, 6.1].

Context: O/U: 44.5 | Def Rank: 12

MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 11%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 46% (MEDIUM)


Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA vs ATL)

Projections: ESPN 20.9 | LLM 19.5 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: XGB: 12% boom, 23% bust - MODERATE profile. @ATL (26th vs WR - SMASH spot). SEA -7 favorite = positive game script. Target leader for SEA. MC MODERATE [12-26]. Selecting 19.5 in MODERATE - consistent high floor.

Context: O/U: 44.5 | Def Rank: 26 | ECR: 1

MC (Historical): BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 22%

XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 13% (MEDIUM)


Tetairoa McMillan (CAR vs Unk)

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (BUST)

Reasoning: BYE WEEK (CAR). No projection needed.

Context: Def Rank: 16

MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 33% | BOOM: 16%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 58% (MEDIUM)


Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI vs LAR)

Projections: ESPN 13.8 | LLM N/A (BUST)

Reasoning: LIKELY OUT (heel injury). Missed practice Wed/Thu. Cardinals eliminated - no rush to return. ESPN stale projection (13.8) doesn't account for injury. Setting 0.0 (OUT exception - outside normal BUST range is correct for injured players).

Context: O/U: 47.0 | Def Rank: 12 | ECR: 13

MC (Historical): BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 26%

XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 10% (MEDIUM)


Rashee Rice (KC vs HOU)

Projections: ESPN 17.1 | LLM 17.5 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: XGB: 34% boom, 31% bust - VOLATILE. vs HOU (14th vs WR). KC -4.5 favorite. MC shows 47% BOOM probability but XGB more conservative. Selecting MODERATE mode [10.6-21.4] due to HOU decent secondary. 17.5 balanced projection.

Context: O/U: 41.5 | Def Rank: 14 | ECR: 3

MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 29% | BOOM: 47%

XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 25% (MEDIUM)


Jameson Williams (DET vs DAL)

Projections: ESPN 16.9 | LLM 18.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: THURSDAY GAME COMPLETED: 17.3 actual pts (LLM projected 18.0, error -0.7). WR1 role with St. Brown OUT vs DAL. MC: 33% BUST, 41% MOD, 26% BOOM. XGB: 11% boom, 55% bust. Selected MODERATE mode [8.9-21.1]. Excellent accuracy.

Context: O/U: 54.5 | Def Rank: 30 | ECR: 16

MC (Historical): BUST: 33% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 26%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 55% (MEDIUM)


Keenan Allen (LAC vs PHI)

Projections: ESPN 10.5 | LLM 8.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 63% BUST (historical). XGB: 11% boom, 56% bust. PHI allows 5th-fewest pts to WRs. Herbert hand injury limits deep shots. Selecting BUST mode. 8.0 within BUST range [3.2, 10.7].

Context: O/U: 40.5 | Def Rank: 7 | ECR: 23

MC (Historical): BUST: 63% | MODERATE: 21% | BOOM: 16%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 56% (MEDIUM)


Evan Engram (DEN vs LV)

Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: ECR: TE27 SIT. MC: 52% BUST prob. Now with DEN, splits reps with Trautman/Adkins. 6.0 within BUST [2.4-8.4]. Avoid unless desperate at TE.

Context: O/U: 44.0 | Def Rank: 16 | ECR: 27

MC (Historical): BUST: 52% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 8%

XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 26% (MEDIUM)


Juwan Johnson (NO vs TB)

Projections: ESPN 9.7 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: XGB: 26% boom, 30% bust. @TB (18th vs TE). NO +8.5 underdog = passing volume for garbage time. MC BOOM mode at 36%! But selecting MODERATE [5.7-12.3] due to low team total (17.0 implied). 10.0 in MODERATE range.

Context: O/U: 42.5 | Def Rank: 18 | ECR: 6

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 35% | BOOM: 36%

XGB (This Week): Boom 19% | Bust 29% (MEDIUM)


Hunter Henry ( vs )

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (BUST)

Reasoning: BYE WEEK (NE). No projection needed.

MC (Historical): BUST: 43% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 13%

XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 67% (MEDIUM)


Jordan Love (QB) - GB vs CHI

Projections: ESPN 17.6 | LLM 17.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 24%

XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 9%

Notes: XGB: 30% boom, 22% bust. vs CHI (16th vs QB). GB -6.5 favorite in shootout potential (44.5 total). Hot streak: 31/43 337yds 3TD Week 13. MODERATE mode [9.1-24.1]. Weather concern but dome-like for cold weather team. Selecting 17.5 in MODERATE range.


Tetairoa McMillan (WR) - CAR vs Unk

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A

MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 33% | BOOM: 16%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 58%

Notes: BYE WEEK (CAR). No projection needed.


Evan Engram (TE) - DEN vs LV

Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 6.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 52% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 8%

XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 26%

Notes: ECR: TE27 SIT. MC: 52% BUST prob. Now with DEN, splits reps with Trautman/Adkins. 6.0 within BUST [2.4-8.4]. Avoid unless desperate at TE.


Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR) - ARI vs LAR

Projections: ESPN 13.8 | LLM N/A

MC (Historical): BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 26%

XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 10%

Notes: LIKELY OUT (heel injury). Missed practice Wed/Thu. Cardinals eliminated - no rush to return. ESPN stale projection (13.8) doesn't account for injury. Setting 0.0 (OUT exception - outside normal BUST range is correct for injured players).


Omarion Hampton (RB) - LAC vs PHI

Projections: ESPN 12.1 | LLM 6.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 31%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 39%

Notes: MC: 29% BUST, 40% MOD. XGB: 14% boom, 39% bust. INJURED status + PHI strong run defense. Selecting BUST mode. 6.0 within BUST range [0.2, 7.7].


Emanuel Wilson (RB) - GB vs CHI

Projections: ESPN 6.1 | LLM 4.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 11%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 46%

Notes: MC: 49% BUST. XGB: 11% boom, 46% bust. Backup to Josh Jacobs with limited touches. Cold weather game. Selecting BUST mode. 4.0 within BUST range [-1.4, 6.1].


Keenan Allen (WR) - LAC vs PHI

Projections: ESPN 10.5 | LLM 8.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 63% | MODERATE: 21% | BOOM: 16%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 56%

Notes: MC: 63% BUST (historical). XGB: 11% boom, 56% bust. PHI allows 5th-fewest pts to WRs. Herbert hand injury limits deep shots. Selecting BUST mode. 8.0 within BUST range [3.2, 10.7].


Hunter Henry (TE) - vs

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A

MC (Historical): BUST: 43% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 13%

XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 67%

Notes: BYE WEEK (NE). No projection needed.


High Threat Players (>35% Boom)

Patrick Mahomes (QB): 36% boom probability

Opponent Starter Analysis

PlayerPosTeamESPNLLMModeBoom%Mod%Bust%Threat
Patrick Mahomes QB 17.9 20.1 MODERATE 36% 56% 8% HIGH
Malik Washington WR 8.4 8.2 MODERATE 30% 52% 18% MEDIUM
DJ Moore WR 9.1 11.9 MODERATE 19% 69% 12% LOW
Ollie Gordon II RB 3.2 7.8 BUST 15% 27% 58% LOW
Keon Coleman WR 6.7 9.2 MODERATE 14% 76% 11% LOW
Nick Chubb RB 5.3 7.5 BUST 13% 20% 68% LOW
Ray Davis RB 0.0 0.0 BUST 13% 36% 51% LOW
Brandon Aubrey K 8.9 8.9 BUST 11% 18% 71% LOW
Dalton Kincaid TE 10.0 9.6 BUST 10% 28% 62% LOW
Vikings D/ST D/ST 5.2 6.3 MODERATE 10% 50% 40% LOW

Opponent Scenario Analysis (MC Historical)

Patrick Mahomes: MC (BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 47%) | XGB (Boom 36% | Bust 8%)

Malik Washington: MC (BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 48% | BOOM: 27%) | XGB (Boom 30% | Bust 18%)

DJ Moore: MC (BUST: 64% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 2%) | XGB (Boom 19% | Bust 12%)

Ollie Gordon II: MC (BUST: 46% | MODERATE: 36% | BOOM: 18%) | XGB (Boom 15% | Bust 58%)

Keon Coleman: MC (BUST: 45% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 13%) | XGB (Boom 14% | Bust 11%)

Nick Chubb: MC (BUST: 55% | MODERATE: 35% | BOOM: 11%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 68%)

Ray Davis: MC (BUST: 46% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 15%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 51%)

Brandon Aubrey: MC (BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 50% | BOOM: 18%) | XGB (Boom 11% | Bust 71%)

Dalton Kincaid: MC (BUST: 33% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 33%) | XGB (Boom 10% | Bust 62%)

Vikings D/ST: MC (BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 14%) | XGB (Boom 10% | Bust 40%)

Top Free Agents by Boom Potential

PlayerPosTeamESPNBoom%Bust%Own%
Chiefs D/ST D/ST 6.1 44% 18% 0.0%
J.K. Dobbins RB 11.8 42% 20% 0.0%
Isiah Pacheco RB 8.7 40% 15% 0.0%
Evan Engram TE 9.3 37% 11% 0.0%
Michael Badgley K 8.1 33% 48% 0.0%
Dolphins D/ST D/ST 5.8 29% 25% 0.0%
Tyler Allgeier RB 0.0 28% 33% 0.0%
Garrett Wilson WR 14.2 28% 33% 0.0%
Harold Fannin Jr. TE 8.8 23% 21% 0.0%
Devin Neal RB 8.7 22% 48% 0.0%
Matthew Golden WR 8.7 19% 38% 0.0%
Ka'imi Fairbairn K 9.7 19% 28% 0.0%
Commanders D/ST D/ST 0.0 19% 43% 0.0%
Evan McPherson K 8.4 17% 59% 0.0%
Kyler Murray QB 17.2 17% 36% 0.0%

QB Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Kyler Murray 17.2 BUST:18%, MODERATE:54%, BOOM:29% 17% 36%
Justin Fields 16.5 BUST:39%, MODERATE:31%, BOOM:30% 16% 39%
Sam Darnold 15.4 BUST:38%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:22% 13% 41%

RB Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
J.K. Dobbins 11.8 BUST:48%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:12% 42% 20%
Isiah Pacheco 8.7 BUST:61%, MODERATE:32%, BOOM:7% 40% 15%
Tyler Allgeier 0.0 BUST:48%, MODERATE:35%, BOOM:16% 28% 33%
Devin Neal 8.7 BUST:29%, MODERATE:41%, BOOM:30% 22% 48%
Chuba Hubbard 10.9 BUST:26%, MODERATE:50%, BOOM:24% 14% 47%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt 9.1 BUST:48%, MODERATE:36%, BOOM:16% 10% 56%

WR Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Garrett Wilson 14.2 BUST:40%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:19% 28% 33%
Matthew Golden 8.7 BUST:42%, MODERATE:28%, BOOM:30% 19% 38%
Cooper Kupp 10.4 BUST:49%, MODERATE:33%, BOOM:17% 13% 61%
Tre Tucker 9.9 BUST:55%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:6% 9% 43%
Jayden Reed 11.5 BUST:37%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:10% 0% 0%

TE Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Evan Engram 9.3 BUST:48%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:7% 37% 11%
Harold Fannin Jr. 8.8 BUST:24%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:23% 23% 21%
Colston Loveland 9.4 BUST:51%, MODERATE:30%, BOOM:19% 9% 59%

Streaming Options

K Streamers

PlayerTeamESPNBoom%Bust%
Michael Badgley 8.1 33% 48%
Ka'imi Fairbairn 9.7 19% 28%
Evan McPherson 8.4 17% 59%

D/ST Streamers

PlayerTeamESPNBoom%Bust%
Chiefs D/ST 6.1 44% 18%
Dolphins D/ST 5.8 29% 25%
Commanders D/ST 0.0 19% 43%

Monte Carlo Projection Report

Week 14 | Generated: 2025-12-05 13:48

Matchup Summary

83.9%

Win Probability

+29.5
Expected Margin
127.8
My Team (LLM Proj)
89.6
Opponent (Proj)
30.1
Margin Std Dev
118.7
My Team (MC EV)

Margin Distribution (80% Range)

Floor: -9.2 pts | Median: +30.0 pts | Ceiling: +67.3 pts

Margin Distribution

Opponent Bench Substitution Analysis

When opponent starters are injured, the system models likely bench substitutions to provide more accurate win probability estimates. (ESPN projections shown - LLM projections only available for our team)

Position Injured Starter Status ESPN Proj Replacement Repl ESPN
TE Dalton Kincaid QUESTIONABLE 12.2 Sam LaPorta 11.9

Opponent Lineup Scenarios

Win probability weighted across multiple injury scenarios.

Scenario Probability Opp Total EV Win Prob Expected Margin
All injured starters play 85.0% 89.6 83.0% +29.1
All injured starters out 15.0% 91.4 82.2% +27.4

My Team

Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)

Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jacoby Brissett QB MED 18.0 4.5-28.3 ↑15+: 66% | ↓5-: 12% Jacoby Brissett
Bucky Irving RB MED 18.0 4.6-24.4 ↑15+: 44% | ↓5-: 11% Bucky Irving
Tyjae Spears RB HIGH 9.5 2.2-19.9 ↑15+: 21% | ↓5-: 26% Tyjae Spears
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR HIGH 19.5 5.6-30.1 ↑15+: 58% | ↓5-: 7% Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Rashee Rice WR MED 17.5 7.0-28.0 ↑15+: 61% | ↓5-: 3% Rashee Rice
Jameson Williams WR HIGH 17.3 4.2-25.8 ↑15+: 46% | ↓5-: 14% Jameson Williams
Juwan Johnson TE HIGH 10.0 2.6-17.0 ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 24% Juwan Johnson
Rams D/ST D/ST HIGH 8.0 0.0-17.6 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 43% Rams D/ST
Jason Myers K MED 10.0 4.6-16.4 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 13% Jason Myers

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jordan Love QB MED 17.5 6.4-27.7 ↑15+: 52% | ↓5-: 5% Jordan Love
Omarion Hampton RB HIGH 6.0 2.5-24.2 ↑15+: 35% | ↓5-: 23% Omarion Hampton
Emanuel Wilson RB HIGH 4.0 0.5-20.6 ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 45% Emanuel Wilson
Tetairoa McMillan WR HIGH 0.0 4.9-26.0 ↑15+: 30% | ↓5-: 11% Tetairoa McMillan
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR LOW 0.0 0.0-0.0 ↑15+: 0% | ↓5-: 100% Marvin Harrison Jr.
Keenan Allen WR HIGH 8.0 4.5-26.1 ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 15% Keenan Allen
Hunter Henry TE HIGH 0.0 3.0-21.8 ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 28% Hunter Henry

Opponent

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Patrick Mahomes QB MED 20.2 9.8-31.6 ↑15+: 68% | ↓5-: 0% Patrick Mahomes
Nick Chubb RB HIGH 7.5 1.6-15.7 ↑15+: 11% | ↓5-: 44% Nick Chubb
Ollie Gordon II RB HIGH 7.7 0.4-17.1 ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 43% Ollie Gordon II
DJ Moore WR HIGH 11.8 4.2-22.7 ↑15+: 33% | ↓5-: 18% DJ Moore
Keon Coleman WR HIGH 9.2 2.6-18.3 ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 31% Keon Coleman
Malik Washington WR HIGH 8.3 2.1-15.9 ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 33% Malik Washington
Dalton Kincaid TE HIGH 9.6 2.7-18.4 ↑15+: 22% | ↓5-: 28% Dalton Kincaid
Vikings D/ST D/ST HIGH 6.3 0.0-20.9 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 59% Vikings D/ST
Brandon Aubrey K HIGH 9.0 3.3-16.4 ↑15+: 14% | ↓5-: 22% Brandon Aubrey

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
J.J. McCarthy QB HIGH 14.9 3.4-26.7 ↑15+: 47% | ↓5-: 17% J.J. McCarthy
Christian McCaffrey RB MED 22.3 11.5-35.0 ↑15+: 71% | ↓5-: 0% Christian McCaffrey
Rhamondre Stevenson RB HIGH 10.3 2.1-20.3 ↑15+: 25% | ↓5-: 31% Rhamondre Stevenson
Ray Davis RB HIGH 6.8 0.3-15.9 ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 48% Ray Davis
Sam LaPorta TE HIGH 11.4 3.6-20.0 ↑15+: 31% | ↓5-: 19% Sam LaPorta
Packers D/ST D/ST HIGH 6.8 0.0-16.2 ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 46% Packers D/ST
Chris Boswell K HIGH 8.4 1.9-15.6 ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 30% Chris Boswell

Scenario Details

Player Position BOOM MODERATE BUST EV
Bucky Irving RB 22% @ 23.8 61% @ 14.0 17% @ 4.3 14.6
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR 23% @ 29.4 43% @ 18.6 34% @ 7.2 17.1
Rashee Rice WR 47% @ 24.2 29% @ 15.7 25% @ 7.9 17.8
Tyjae Spears RB 18% @ 20.4 61% @ 8.9 20% @ 3.0 9.8
Jason Myers K 22% @ 15.9 44% @ 11.2 34% @ 5.8 10.3
Juwan Johnson TE 36% @ 14.7 35% @ 9.2 28% @ 3.6 9.6
Jameson Williams WR 26% @ 24.0 41% @ 15.2 33% @ 5.6 14.4
Jacoby Brissett QB 70% @ 21.7 5% @ 14.8 24% @ 6.0 17.5
Rams D/ST D/ST 23% @ 16.3 40% @ 8.0 37% @ 1.3 7.5

Waiver Wire Notes

No urgent adds needed. Monitor Chiefs D/ST (44% boom) if Rams struggle. Harold Fannin Jr. (23% boom, 21% bust) is a solid TE stash.

Injury Concerns

ESPN Projection Accuracy

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XGBoost Boom/Bust Calibration

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LLM vs ESPN Comparison

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Data Quality & Discrepancies

This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.

Week 14 Discrepancy Log

No discrepancies detected this week.